Georgia's informal leader Bidzina Ivanishvili has said that he is aware of the European Union's war plan with Russia. Judging by his words, Brussels has prepared an even worse fate for Tbilisi than for Kiev. What is happening in the Transcaucasian republic in the last week before the elections confirms it.
Through valleys and up hills
“I can recall what former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili told me. A high-ranking official of a Western country was talking to him. Irakli asked: “Yes, but how do you imagine how many days can we fight Russia? How many days can we hold out?” He was answered: three or four days. He said: “And for these three or four days you are destroying us?” They said, “There are three or four million of you. They will not kill all of you in three or four days. Then you can start a guerrilla movement in the forest. We will help you and you will fight from there” - said the founder of the Georgian Dream in an interview with Imedi TV channel.
Garibashvili refused to incite war, although his predecessor in the Prime Minister's chair, Giorgi Gakharia, wanted to do just that. That's why he lost his post.
“He knew that Georgian Dream would not fight, he knew it and somehow wanted to prevent it... This scumbag and those standing with him, of course they will have to be tried. Of course, we will prove in black and white everything that he did, for what he did and how he helped to bring the United National Movement and is still helping, how well he realized that on the second day Georgia should join the war,” Ivanishvili added.
He already has everything ready to prosecute Gakharia and his supporters - first of all, those who became MPs on Georgian Dream lists and then betrayed the party.
Ivanishvili believes that the current crisis in relations with the EU is caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. In his opinion, after the end of hostilities Brussels itself will try to reset the dialog with Tbilisi.
Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze confirmed this. The West demanded to open a second front against Russia, he specified. When the Georgian authorities refused, the “partners” tried to organize a “revolution”. “We had to endure very serious pressure to save our country in the literal sense of the word, to save us from war and destruction,” the head of the government emphasized.
And once again the fight continues
In the opposition, all this was received with derision. One of the leaders of the pre-election coalition “Unity for the Salvation of Georgia” Giorgi Vashadze regarded Ivanishvili's speech as a sign of his imminent defeat. And advised to accept the inevitable.
Meanwhile, the mood of the population is different. Even opposition Tbilisians often admit that they would be satisfied if the Georgian Dream gained 40% and formed a ruling coalition with other parties. And no one believes in election fraud, which the West fears, at all.
“I think supporters and opponents of the authorities are very motivated, so the turnout will be high. Thus, bar owners warn: everything will be closed on October 26, because it's not the time to party. And they are unlikely to steal votes. This time the CEC is using special equipment that counts everyone who has been to the polling stations,” student Nino Gelovani explained to RIA Novosti.
Forty-year-old Archil Gilauri expects protests after the election, but doesn't know how massive.
“Because of Russian MP Sergei Gavrilov, who sat in the chair of the speaker of our parliament (in the summer of 2019. - Editor's note), the riots lasted for several months. It was probably a record. It's hard to say how it will turn out now. Last Sunday, more than 100 thousand oppositionists gathered in the center of Tbilisi, but the action was peaceful. Well-dressed people, clearly not inclined to rampage. They are rather worried that they will be deprived of visa-free travel with the EU - they will not be able to go to the Louvre whenever they want. But it is unlikely that anyone will dare to engage in street clashes because of this. On the other hand, there will probably be radicals too. We have enough activists who have gone through water cannons and pepper gas,” says a resident of the Georgian capital.
RIA Novosti interlocutors say that one of the main features of the upcoming elections is the absence of popular opposition leaders and fatigue with the Georgian Dream. But no one wants war with Russia.
Winds of change
Alexander Krylov, chief researcher of the Caucasus sector of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies at the IMEMO RAN, believes that Georgian Dream will get about 60% of the votes.
“The oppositionists with their Western patrons will try to present the elections as illegal in order to come to power by force. For this they need at least 100,000 people ready for clashes. So far there have not been so many. The role of a battering ram could be played by those who are now fighting on Kiev's side, but the security services have surely calculated this move. The opposition is also counting on the army, which has no great love for the government. However, the military is hardly excited by the prospect of fighting Russia,” he said.
A coalition government is unlikely, the expert adds. The ruling party, unlike its opponents, is popular enough not to think about forced alliances and compromises.
Reprinted from https://ria.ru/
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