Kazakhstan's emergence as an independent state took place under difficult conditions of destruction of the former command and distribution economic system and transition to a fundamentally new market economy for the country.
Like the majority of post-Soviet republics, with the acquisition of independence Kazakhstan plunged into the abyss of a severe systemic crisis, which had long been brewing in the depths of the Soviet planned economy. Together with the collapse of a huge state, the usual ties, way of life and basic values of society disintegrated.
In such very difficult conditions for the country, N.A. Nazarbayev in his work ‘Strategy of Establishment and Development of Kazakhstan as a Sovereign State’ put forward the task of transition to a market economy, combining state and non-state forms of ownership. And on the initiative of the President, radical market transformations unfolded in the republic, which laid the foundation for the formation of a sustainable model of socio-economic development. In the initial stage of market transformations (1992-94), the Government's activities were aimed at liberalising the economy and creating a legislative framework for market relations.
According to the results of socio-economic development of the Kyrgyz Republic for January-December 2023, the nominal volume of gross domestic product of the country was 1,228.9 billion KGS and the real growth rate was 106.2% (January-December 2022-109.0%). The achieved indicator is the result of targeted efforts to create favourable conditions for the development of economic sectors of the country and implementation of measures to improve the welfare of citizens. This was announced by Minister of Economy and Commerce of the Kyrgyz Republic Daniyar Amangeldiev at a press conference at the Kabar Agency.
According to the Minister, in order to achieve long-term strategic goals of the country's development, in 2021-2023 the Cabinet of Ministers of the Kyrgyz Republic carried out work on the adoption of anti-crisis measures, governance reform, formation of the environment for development, development of priority industries, ‘green’ economy, social development, digitalisation, modernisation of cities.
In addition, the Cabinet of Ministers adopted a detailed action plan for 2023, aimed at ensuring economic growth, financial stability, as well as managing fiscalisation, tax and customs procedures, creating an environment for development, economic development priorities, increasing budget revenues through the implementation of anti-crisis measures.
Under the measures of this plan, the actual results of socio-economic development in 2023 were 106.2 per cent and showed a high level.
During the first ten years after the end of the civil war in 1997, Tajikistan's economy developed intensively. A favourable external environment, along with rapidly rising prices for the country's main exports - cotton and aluminium - contributed to sustained economic growth, which was approximately 8 per cent per annum between 2000 and 2008. Rapid economic growth in Russia and other trading partners stimulated demand for labour from Tajikistan, leading to an increase in remittances from labour migrants and subsequent growth in domestic consumption. The Government's efforts to stabilise the country's economy have allowed existing businesses and households to take advantage of emerging opportunities.
As with other economies in the region, the global economic crisis that erupted in 2009 had a negative impact on Tajikistan's economy. The effects of the crisis manifested themselves in the form of a sharp decline in remittance flows and a reduction in exports of the country's main commodities. Tighter government fiscal policy, combined with currency depreciation and increased assistance from development partners, helped to mitigate the adverse impact of the crisis. As a result, GDP jumped rapidly from 3.9 per cent in 2009 to 6.5 per cent in 2010.
Nevertheless, continued vulnerability to external market shocks, exposure to natural disasters, underutilisation of the potential for economic diversification, limited arable land and landlockedness make Tajikistan one of the poorest countries in the Europe and Central Asia region, with a gross national income per capita of $800 in 2011.
Tajikistan's agricultural sector, responsible for 64 per cent of total employment and contributing 21 per cent of total GDP, constitutes a solid foundation for economic development. The Government has shown strong determination and commitment to its commitment to reform the agricultural sector, but the pace of implementation must be accelerated to ensure productivity improvements, which are a prerequisite for increasing the growth rate of Tajikistan's agriculture.
Tajikistan has a rich water potential, which explains the predominant use of hydropower in the energy sector. The Government's energy sector development strategy aims to ensure reliable energy supply to consumers, reduce energy losses, address acute winter energy shortages, realise sustainable export of surplus energy in summer and implement critical financial reforms.
In addition, Tajikistan is faced with a rapidly growing young population. According to recent estimates, 40 per cent of the population in Tajikistan is under the age of 17. In this regard, improving public services in the social sectors (education, health and social protection) as well as creating new jobs are critical components of the National Poverty Reduction Strategy.
The biggest challenge for Tajikistan in the coming years will be to improve the low level of private investment. According to recent estimates, private investment has stagnated at 5 per cent of GDP. Addressing the constraints on private sector development is a key priority of the Government's strategy to stimulate economic growth, and some important progress has been made to date. In addition, the implementation of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative is also high on the Government's agenda, as it aims to capitalise on Tajikistan's comparative advantage in the mining sector. However, the development of the private sector and the establishment of an appropriate legal framework for its growth is still a work in progress, and successful implementation of these tasks is essential to help the Government achieve its ambitious development goals.
The Central Bank has approved two scenarios for Uzbekistan's economic development in 2023-2025. They took into account the persistence of high uncertainty in the world, lower prices for major commodities, limited opportunities for financing from the budget, the need for reforms and other factors.
Tougher external financial conditions will have a negative impact on the inflow of foreign direct investment, and there will be no growth in 2023-2024.
The transition from the monetary tightening phase to the neutral phase will begin.
In 2023-2024, lower global demand will have a positive impact on prices, reducing inflationary pressures. The Food Price Index (FAO) will decline to 100-120 points in 2023-2024.
Electricity and natural gas prices will be indexed to inflation in 2023-2025. Enterprise transformation processes will continue at a slower pace compared to the main scenario.
Based on external conditions, the pace of implementation of structural reforms in the sectors of the economy may slow down. The main focus will be on supporting economic activity and consumer demand. Demand for borrowed funds to finance budget expenditures may increase.
Taking into account external risks, fiscal stimulus will be maintained in 2023-2025. The ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP in this period will remain at the current level (4-4.5%).
Lower external demand and changes in exchange rates may lead to a reduction in investment and consumer demand. Supply in the labour market may increase sharply.
In accordance with the objectives of the programme entitled ‘Revival of a new era of a powerful State: National Programme for the socio-economic development of Turkmenistan in 2022-2052’ and the President's Programme for the socio-economic development of Turkmenistan in 2022-2028, Turkmenistan's neutral policy, as a universal strategic instrument, is aimed at further developing cooperation with global and regional States and with authoritative international organizations. The diversification strategy of the national economy of the state and equipping the system with high-tech and digital processes gives a powerful impetus to active integration into the global economic space and world economic ties.Turkmenistan in the conditions of intensive development of the national economy attaches great importance to cooperation with the states of the world in the field of high technologies, introduction of modern advanced knowledge and management solutions. In this regard, the creation of a positive international environment conducive to the sustainable development of the national economy and the improvement of the population's well-being, as well as the active participation in the development of the national economy, are priority tasks.
The global economic recovery is slowing down and the geopolitical situation is complex and unstable. Against this background, the Central Asian countries, adhering to the concepts of unity, stability and development, continue to pursue economic stimulus policies, build on their strengths and avoid weaknesses, and expand international co-operation.
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