Karabakh conflict
The Karabakh conflict is an ethno-political conflict in Transcaucasia between Azerbaijanis and Armenians over Nagorno-Karabakh.
The intercommunal conflict, which has long historical and cultural roots, gained new acuteness in the years of perestroika (1987-1988), against the background of the sharp rise of national movements in Armenia and Azerbaijan. By November-December 1988, the conflict, as A. N. Yamskov noted, involved the majority of the inhabitants of both republics, and it actually outgrew the framework of the local problem of Nagorno-Karabakh, turning into an “open interethnic confrontation”, which was only temporarily halted by the Spitak earthquake. The Soviet leadership's unwillingness to take adequate political action in the situation of aggravated interethnic strife, the inconsistency of the measures taken, and the declaration by the central authorities that Armenia and Azerbaijan were equally to blame for the crisis situation led to the emergence and strengthening of radical anti-communist opposition in both republics.
In 1991-1994, this confrontation led to large-scale military actions for control over Nagorno-Karabakh and some adjacent territories. In terms of military confrontation, it was surpassed only by the Chechen conflict, but as Svante Cornell (2000) noted, “of all the Caucasus conflicts, the Karabakh conflict has the greatest strategic and region-wide significance. It is the only conflict in the former Soviet Union that directly involves two independent states. Moreover, in the late 1990s, the Karabakh conflict contributed to the formation of opposing groups of states in and around the Caucasus”.
On May 5, 1994, the Bishkek Protocol on Armistice and Ceasefire was signed between Armenia and the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic (NKR) on one side and Azerbaijan on the other. Between May 9 and May 11, 1994, a ceasefire agreement was signed from May 12, 1994.
After the end of the Karabakh war, the conflict went into a frozen phase, negotiations were conducted through the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group. Nevertheless, escalations of various scales have occurred periodically along the Nagorno-Karabakh line of contact. In April 2016, the largest armed clashes between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces at the time, known in the press as the Four-Day War, took place. As a result, there were small territorial changes in favor of Azerbaijan.
In September 2020, the conflict again entered the phase of a new war, following which, in accordance with the ceasefire statement of November 9-10, 2020, Azerbaijan gained control of most of the previously lost territories, which until 2020 were controlled by the NKR.
On December 12, 2022, Azerbaijan began a blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh, cutting off the Lachin corridor, the only transportation road linking the region to Armenia. On September 19, 2023 it started military actions against NKR, as a result of which in late September - early October almost the entire Armenian population left the region, NKR bodies were disbanded, it itself ceased to exist, and Azerbaijan regained control over the entire internationally recognized territory.
As G. V. Starovoitova wrote, “from the point of view of international law, this conflict is an example of contradictions between two fundamental principles: on the one hand, the right of the people to self-determination, and on the other hand, the principle of territorial integrity, according to which only peaceful change of borders by agreement is possible”.
The First Karabakh War
From 1992 to 1994 Azerbaijan tried to take the self-proclaimed republic under its control, it was a full-scale military action, Baku and Yerevan used heavy equipment and aviation. These events went down in history as the First Karabakh War, during which up to 30,000 people (combatants and civilians) were killed.
Armenian formations took control of several districts of Azerbaijan that were not part of the Nagorno-Karabakh autonomy before the conflict: the entire districts of Kelbajar, Lachin, Kubatli, Jabrayil and Zangelan, and partially the districts of Agdam and Fizuli. About 15% of Nagorno-Karabakh remained under Baku's control.
In 1994 in Bishkek the parties agreed on a ceasefire and the conflict was frozen. In 1992, the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe (since 1994, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) began to participate in the conflict settlement. In 1997, the institution of triple co-chairmanship of the OSCE Minsk Group (USA, Russia, France) was established, where the main negotiations on the conflict settlement were conducted, but for almost two decades they failed to produce results. The Nagorno-Karabakh authorities did not participate in the negotiations.
After the war, the independence of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic with its capital in Stepanakert was not recognized by any country, including Armenia, although it was Yerevan that ensured its economic and military security.
The state of the conflict in the 2010s
Azerbaijan has made no secret of the fact that the goal of its policy is to restore territorial integrity and return the entire territory of Nagorno-Karabakh under its control. There were occasional exchanges of fire on the line of contact, but the sides refrained from large-scale military action.
Major escalations occurred in 2014 and then in April 2016, when more than 30 deaths were reported on both sides, with dozens of people injured. In 2016, the first use of combat drones (UAVs) by Azerbaijan was reported. The escalation lasted four days and went down in history as the April War. The parties, with the participation of the OSCE and Russia, agreed on a ceasefire.
In 2018, opposition politician Nikol Pashinyan came to power in Armenia as a result of the “velvet revolution”. With his arrival, the rule of the so-called Karabakh clan in the republic ended. Armenia's second and third presidents Robert Kocharyan and Serzh Sargsyan were born in Stepanakert and took an active part in the war for NKR independence. Kocharian was the first prime minister and president of the NKR.
Second Karabakh War
After coming to power, Pashinyan declared several times that “Artsakh is Armenia, and that's it” (Artsakh is the Armenian self-name of NK), although negotiations on a settlement continued. On September 27, 2020, active hostilities began, with the sides blaming each other for the outbreak. The Second Karabakh War lasted 44 days and was won by Azerbaijan, which regained control of significant parts of the territories adjacent to Nagorno-Karabakh, as well as parts of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, including the towns of Shusha (Shushi) and Hadrut. Russian peacekeepers were introduced into the remaining areas of Nagorno-Karabakh under the control of Armenian forces by a decision of November 9, 2020, although their mandate was not formally enshrined in the parties' agreement. According to Russian data, about 5,000 people died in the war.
Nagorno-Karabakh from 2020 to 2023
During these three years, several more territories in both Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia came under Azerbaijani control as a result of armed skirmishes. Since December 2022, Karabakh has been effectively placed under blockade. An Azerbaijani checkpoint was set up on the only road linking Armenia to Karabakh - the Lachin corridor. According to Baku, this became possible after Armenia recognized Azerbaijan's territorial integrity at the recent meetings in Prague and Sochi, so Baku has the right to act there at its own discretion. Russian representatives pointed out that this is not envisioned by the 2020 agreement.
Fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023
On September 19, 2023, Azerbaijan announced the start of “local anti-terrorist actions” in Karabakh. The country's Ministry of Defense named the goals of these actions as:
disarmament and withdrawal of Armenian troops (Armenia at the same time claimed that its military did not exist on the territory of the unrecognized NKR);
return to the “territories liberated from occupation”;
“restoration of the constitutional structure of Azerbaijan”.
On September 20, the NKR authorities announced that the parties, mediated by Russian peacekeepers, had agreed on a complete cessation of hostilities from 13:00 (12:00 Moscow time). Among other things, the agreement implies the disbanding and disarmament of the Karabakh army and the withdrawal of the remaining units of the Armenian Armed Forces from the zone of deployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent. The sides agreed to discuss the issues of reintegration, ensuring the rights and security of the Armenian population of Karabakh at a meeting of representatives of the local Armenian population and Azerbaijani authorities in Yevlakh on September 21.
According to the Nagorno-Karabakh Ombudsman's office, more than 30 people were killed in the fighting, including seven civilians, and more than 200 people were injured, including 35 civilians. Baku reported one death on its side.
The long-awaited border delimitation process between Armenia and Azerbaijan has begun, the deputy prime ministers of both countries announced on April 23, 2024. Armenia returned four villages and began demining. At a protest rally in the region, President Pashinyan suggested not to be afraid of Azerbaijanis but to trade with them.
We are talking about the territory around four Azerbaijani villages near the border, which Armenia agreed to return to Azerbaijan a few days ago. Demining is reportedly underway there now.
The delimitation began after the eighth meeting of the two countries' commissions on border delimitation. Armenia also reported that it has started demining in that section.
This is just the very beginning of a border delineation process that the parties to the conflict have been talking about for more than three years, ever since Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to conduct it as a result of the 2020 Karabakh war. Before that, the sides had long argued over which Soviet-era maps to rely on.
Peace talks between Azerbaijan and Armenia were held in Almaty on May 10-11, with Foreign Ministers Ceyhun Bayramov and Ararat Mirzoyan meeting there. For the first time Kazakhstan acted as a mediator between them. Its president Kasym-Jomart Tokayev said that the republic is ready to become a platform for negotiations at a meeting with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan during his visit to Yerevan in mid-April.
Kazakhstan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu met with both ministers - first separately, then in a trilateral format. On the second day, the Azerbaijani and Armenian Foreign Ministries issued identical reports, saying that the main outcome of the talks was a willingness to continue discussing the draft peace agreement and to agree “on the remaining open issues on which there are still disagreements”.
Russia “would be happy” to facilitate the signing of a peace treaty between longtime foes Armenia and Azerbaijan, President Vladimir Putin said at talks with his Azerbaijani counterpart on Monday.
“If we can do something that will lead Azerbaijan and Armenia to sign a peace treaty ... we will be very happy to do it,” Putin told President Ilham Aliyev during a state visit to Baku.
Putin said he also planned to meet with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and talk about the results of his talks with Aliyev.
Comments